The ICE

[dinny_g]

In 10 years time there'll be plenty of today's EVs knocking about at affordable prices. Not quite sure what the price floor would be though, the ICE cheap car for a grand or so today still needs as much again spending on fuel, tax, etc for a year's use while the EV won't.

But will those 10+ year old EVs actually function fully or will battery degradation effectively have written them off?

Current battery tech then possibly - I suppose it depends on how it was kept and used (much like buying a 10 year old ICE that was properly run in, serviced regularly, not ragged excessively)

But in future, battery tech (IF we keep with that technology) will HAVE to get better in order to maintain the overall Environmental benefits

[Marv]

In 10 years time there'll be plenty of today's EVs knocking about at affordable prices. Not quite sure what the price floor would be though, the ICE cheap car for a grand or so today still needs as much again spending on fuel, tax, etc for a year's use while the EV won't.

But will those 10+ year old EVs actually function fully or will battery degradation effectively have written them off?

Think the battery degradation thing was a myth, made up by the oil industry

[V8Granite]

The battery degradation was true but wasn’t that only on models without proper battery conditioning ?

I’m sure only the Leaf was affected and that was just a battery in a box where Tesla’s etc all had proper thermal control and modify charge rates etc.

Dave!

[mr_jon]

The Zoe has an air-cooled battery and uses the a/c to further cool the battery intake temps when needed. New models also have battery heating. Tesla's, I believe, all have liquid-cooled packs.

The Leaf has no thermal management at all.

[simon_g]

In 10 years time there'll be plenty of today's EVs knocking about at affordable prices. Not quite sure what the price floor would be though, the ICE cheap car for a grand or so today still needs as much again spending on fuel, tax, etc for a year's use while the EV won't.

But will those 10+ year old EVs actually function fully or will battery degradation effectively have written them off?

I think somewhere in the middle.

EVs seem less likely to have the sort of failure that writes off a lot of cheap cars - the cambelt snapping or knackered gearbox that aren't worth the cost to fix. Batteries do degrade slowly over time, but it's not a sudden thing and some cars (like the earlier Leafs) seem more prone to it than others. So you won't have a 10+ year old car that does the same range as it did when it was new, but it'll still be a useful car to someone.

The earliest UK Leafs are nearly 9 years old, cheapest one on Autotrader with pics is still showing 9 of 12 bars on the dash - so probably good for 50ish miles still. There are ones with less in the US where hot weather affects those early Leafs even more, still being used, just for shorter trips.

There's lots of "replacing the battery" talk, and some do get done (partly to test out the process) but I suspect when they're no good for the owner's everyday needs any more they'll get sold to someone who needs less. Better battery tech and bigger packs to start with mean the used stock in 10+ years time will have more range than an early Leaf or Zoe did when it was new.

[ShockDiamonds]

With regards to battery ageing, in the summer a full charge takes me 19 miles on my commute. Considering the car was only rated at 'up to 21 miles' of range 5.5 years and 70k miles ago, that's pretty good.

It's utterly shit in the winter mind, with everything on and sub-zero, after about 7 miles it's pretty fucked.

[Rich B]

In 10 years time there'll be plenty of today's EVs knocking about at affordable prices. Not quite sure what the price floor would be though, the ICE cheap car for a grand or so today still needs as much again spending on fuel, tax, etc for a year's use while the EV won't.

But will those 10+ year old EVs actually function fully or will battery degradation effectively have written them off?

I think somewhere in the middle.

EVs seem less likely to have the sort of failure that writes off a lot of cheap cars - the cambelt snapping or knackered gearbox that aren't worth the cost to fix. Batteries do degrade slowly over time, but it's not a sudden thing and some cars (like the earlier Leafs) seem more prone to it than others. So you won't have a 10+ year old car that does the same range as it did when it was new, but it'll still be a useful car to someone.

The earliest UK Leafs are nearly 9 years old, cheapest one on Autotrader with pics is still showing 9 of 12 bars on the dash - so probably good for 50ish miles still. There are ones with less in the US where hot weather affects those early Leafs even more, still being used, just for shorter trips.

There's lots of "replacing the battery" talk, and some do get done (partly to test out the process) but I suspect when they're no good for the owner's everyday needs any more they'll get sold to someone who needs less. Better battery tech and bigger packs to start with mean the used stock in 10+ years time will have more range than an early Leaf or Zoe did when it was new.

whereas poor people can whatever length journey they like with ICE.

[Swervin_Mervin]

But will those 10+ year old EVs actually function fully or will battery degradation effectively have written them off?

I think somewhere in the middle.

EVs seem less likely to have the sort of failure that writes off a lot of cheap cars - the cambelt snapping or knackered gearbox that aren't worth the cost to fix. Batteries do degrade slowly over time, but it's not a sudden thing and some cars (like the earlier Leafs) seem more prone to it than others. So you won't have a 10+ year old car that does the same range as it did when it was new, but it'll still be a useful car to someone.

The earliest UK Leafs are nearly 9 years old, cheapest one on Autotrader with pics is still showing 9 of 12 bars on the dash - so probably good for 50ish miles still. There are ones with less in the US where hot weather affects those early Leafs even more, still being used, just for shorter trips.

There's lots of "replacing the battery" talk, and some do get done (partly to test out the process) but I suspect when they're no good for the owner's everyday needs any more they'll get sold to someone who needs less. Better battery tech and bigger packs to start with mean the used stock in 10+ years time will have more range than an early Leaf or Zoe did when it was new.

whereas poor people can whatever length journey they like with ICE.

Subject to putting fuel in it. Like having to put electricity in an EV.

[Rich B]

I think somewhere in the middle.

EVs seem less likely to have the sort of failure that writes off a lot of cheap cars - the cambelt snapping or knackered gearbox that aren't worth the cost to fix. Batteries do degrade slowly over time, but it's not a sudden thing and some cars (like the earlier Leafs) seem more prone to it than others. So you won't have a 10+ year old car that does the same range as it did when it was new, but it'll still be a useful car to someone.

The earliest UK Leafs are nearly 9 years old, cheapest one on Autotrader with pics is still showing 9 of 12 bars on the dash - so probably good for 50ish miles still. There are ones with less in the US where hot weather affects those early Leafs even more, still being used, just for shorter trips.

There's lots of "replacing the battery" talk, and some do get done (partly to test out the process) but I suspect when they're no good for the owner's everyday needs any more they'll get sold to someone who needs less. Better battery tech and bigger packs to start with mean the used stock in 10+ years time will have more range than an early Leaf or Zoe did when it was new.

whereas poor people can whatever length journey they like with ICE.

Subject to putting fuel in it. Like having to put electricity in an EV.

but 100x quicker!

[GG.]

I love the fact that on one thread we have someone saying that a battery operated device with less than 85% battery health is essentially a paperweight and another where seemingly re-filling a car with electricity every 50 miles for a 9 year old car is somehow ok.

Another interesting point is when that degradation has happened - do you still put the same amount of charge in for less range, or does the amount of juice the battery will take just drop. If the former then obviously the deg has a $ impact too.

[ShockDiamonds]

I love the fact that on one thread we have someone saying that a battery operated device with less than 85% battery health is essentially a paperweight and another where seemingly re-filling a car with electricity every 50 miles for a 9 year old car is somehow ok.

Another interesting point is when that degradation has happened - do you still put the same amount of charge in for less range, or does the amount of juice the battery will take just drop. If the former then obviously the deg has a $ impact too.

Most of the time the only purpose the battery in my hybrid serves is to enable zero RFL. I just can't be arsed to plug it in every single night, then unplug it and put the cable away in the garage (and which, incidentally, renders null and void any noise benefits of not waking the neighbours through loud exhaust usage, since garage doors make one hell of a racket at 7am) the following morning, and every single morning.

[Swervin_Mervin]

and another where seemingly re-filling a car with electricity every 50 miles for a 9 year old car is somehow ok.

Ok, for the hundredth time because you're finding this really difficult...that is now, not the situation at 2035. With what is now 9yr old battery tech on a car with no management and current charging tech. A 10yr old car at 2035 will have battery tech we potentially don't yet understand the range/degradation of, and charging tech will be 15years more advanced.

[Rich B]

Hopefully.

[Swervin_Mervin]

Hopefully.

I don't see what's "hopefully" about tech 15yrs into the future being different to now...

[GG.]

So we've decided to target a ban in 2035 on the basis of tech we don't know we will have, that will be much more expensive than the current equivalent and no real means to develop the required extra capacity in the grid to meet the demand or realistic prospect that the charging infrastructure will be there to cater for it. All sounds grand!

It's alright though - if we all go around shouting "how dare you" at anyone who questions the plan, the eco pixies will fix it for us.

Realistically things will move on, though not quickly enough to meet that deadline, the electricity generated won't be as green as people imagine, car transport generally will end up more expensive and less convenient. Let's re-convene in 2035 and we can see how it turns out

[Jobbo]

That’s exactly how emissions regulations have worked in the past for ICE engines. It doesn’t seem unreasonable to expect progress, and legislation can stimulate that by setting deadlines.

[GG.]

Yes and that ended up with a gigantic push towards diesel cars. I expect the transition to electric will have similar unwanted side effects.

[Jobbo]

The push towards diesel cars was exactly the intended effect. CO2 emissions were reduced.

The fact that another concern has arisen doesn’t mean the push to lower CO2 has unintended effects.

[NotoriousREV]

I wonder if the industry will react to the upcoming ban at all and start researching and developing new technology because new we have a deadline in sight, thus driving massive strides forward. Nah, that would be silly.

[Rich B]

Hopefully.

I don't see what's "hopefully" about tech 15yrs into the future being different to now...

”A 10yr old car at 2035 will have battery tech we potentially don't yet understand the range/degradation of”

Hopefully.