The ICE

revsRus
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Re: The ICE

Post by revsRus »

Swervin_Mervin wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 2:32 pm
GG. wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:50 pm
Swervin_Mervin wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:40 pm

Most people will charge at home and this will cater for a majority of journeys. Charging connectors appear to have standardised (type 2/CCS).

Christ I'm no EV evangelist but some of you sound like horse and cart drivers upon hearing of the invention of the ICE :lol:
32% of homes have no off street parking so you've 1/3 of the housing stock that that's not going to work for (going back to the cables danging from windows example someone posted earlier). That will require a move to something like inductive charging pads otherwise you're going to disenfranchise a lot of people from the electric changeover - ironically those in inner cities where pollution is most marked.

I think you also underestimate the chaos that would result from a large scale move to BEVs and insufficient charging capacity away from home. A lot of people are not going to be organised enough or will unexpectedly have to do journeys for which they haven't enough charge. If you have millions of EVs you will still need a sea change in charging capacity away from the home.

Oh and of course let's not forget about the elephant in the room... power generation capacity.

Look - I'm not saying EVs will not in the end be better than ICEs - I'm sure that day will come. My criticism is aimed more at the silly willy waving re arbitrary targets "Neh neh we can ban things 5 years earlier than yooooou". Its childish.
So 68% of homes would be capable of home-charging. And that's before you factor in the roll-out of on-street charging inrfastructure, which has already started, albeit not quick enough imo. And even then, many of those 32% are likely to be in apartment developments, for which I'd imagine it's going to start to become increasingly important that site landlords start to consider having to put charging infrastructure in.

I still don't believe for a second that generation capacity will actually prove to be an issue. Our energy usage is going to change markedly as well, with increased reliance on storage (both public and private). That will tie in with intelligent charging being able to charge BEVs during different demand periods, use them as stores for the network itself, and so on. You'll start to see a change in tariffs as well, able to cater for this change in energy usage/storage.

This is still 15 years away, and as Simon's already highlighted, things have moved on considerably in the last 15 years. And the rate of change is crucial - most of that change in the last 15 years has actually occurred more recently.
Big fan of this positive thinking, especially on a petrol enthusiasts’ forum 👏🏼👏🏼
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GG.
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Re: The ICE

Post by GG. »

revsRus wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:50 pm
Swervin_Mervin wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 2:32 pm
GG. wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:50 pm

32% of homes have no off street parking so you've 1/3 of the housing stock that that's not going to work for (going back to the cables danging from windows example someone posted earlier). That will require a move to something like inductive charging pads otherwise you're going to disenfranchise a lot of people from the electric changeover - ironically those in inner cities where pollution is most marked.

I think you also underestimate the chaos that would result from a large scale move to BEVs and insufficient charging capacity away from home. A lot of people are not going to be organised enough or will unexpectedly have to do journeys for which they haven't enough charge. If you have millions of EVs you will still need a sea change in charging capacity away from the home.

Oh and of course let's not forget about the elephant in the room... power generation capacity.

Look - I'm not saying EVs will not in the end be better than ICEs - I'm sure that day will come. My criticism is aimed more at the silly willy waving re arbitrary targets "Neh neh we can ban things 5 years earlier than yooooou". Its childish.
So 68% of homes would be capable of home-charging. And that's before you factor in the roll-out of on-street charging inrfastructure, which has already started, albeit not quick enough imo. And even then, many of those 32% are likely to be in apartment developments, for which I'd imagine it's going to start to become increasingly important that site landlords start to consider having to put charging infrastructure in.

I still don't believe for a second that generation capacity will actually prove to be an issue. Our energy usage is going to change markedly as well, with increased reliance on storage (both public and private). That will tie in with intelligent charging being able to charge BEVs during different demand periods, use them as stores for the network itself, and so on. You'll start to see a change in tariffs as well, able to cater for this change in energy usage/storage.

This is still 15 years away, and as Simon's already highlighted, things have moved on considerably in the last 15 years. And the rate of change is crucial - most of that change in the last 15 years has actually occurred more recently.
Big fan of this wishful thinking, especially on a petrol enthusiasts’ forum 👏🏼👏🏼
;)

I look forward to all that renewable and nuke power plugging the fossil fuel capacity in the grid to power all these EVs within the next 15 years without us having to resort to building gas fired power stations to keep the lights on :lol:

I've no doubt it will happen - just not on Greta's timescales.
simon_g
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Re: The ICE

Post by simon_g »

Variable electricity tariffs will help a lot with managing demand - it’s in early stages but there are quite a few offering cheap overnight rates at fixed times now. Bit like old Economy 7 but enabled by smart meters rather than separate ones. I actually use a tariff that changes every half hour tracking wholesale rates, it gets pricey at peak time (which I can largely avoid) but is cheaper than most through the rest of the day and can get very cheap or even negative on a windy night.

The worry of “what happens when everyone plugs in when they get home?” won’t be a big issue because most won’t need more than a few hours of charging and they’ll delay it until the cheap time if they can. All new grant-funded home chargers now need to be “smart” which lets people set this easily.
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Mito Man
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Re: The ICE

Post by Mito Man »

What happens when everyone plugs in? The grid won’t black out and it’s already an issue for my parents place since it’s a small village and quite a few people have electric cars.
The smart charger will ramp down from 32 amps to 16 essentially turning it into an ordinary 3 pin socket. Good for the grid, bad if your car is scheduled to be charged for your departure time so the battery is pre-heated before your commute to work and you realise you’re 60 miles away from a full charge. Ok if you have a large battery and range to spare, not good otherwise!
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V8Granite
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Re: The ICE

Post by V8Granite »

What if you need to charge 2 cars at once, we have 2 cars in regular use with very changing use. Sometimes we go a week and barely do 10 miles in the cars and other times we drive all of them. It’s just another way to make things a faff to do. I like the freedom of being able to just jump in and go, to make big detours and essentially not have to plan.

Having to go full electric for our daily used cars will be a pain and will definitely change what I buy. I’ll go for the nicest interior and longest range, driving enjoyment won’t even come into it but I will never own a self driving car.

It’s a shame and I think there are far better ways to meet emissions etc and let the natural take up of electric vehicles happen in its own way, not force it onto everyone.

Now what I think will happen is that a tipping point will happen, the cost savings will reduce in a big way and the take up will slow down a lot.

A shame for fun driving as not everyone wants a fun weekend car, they want a one car fits all solution.

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duncs500
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Re: The ICE

Post by duncs500 »

V8Granite wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:12 am I will never own a self driving car.

Dave!
Might get forced into that one day too.
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Mito Man
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Re: The ICE

Post by Mito Man »

Yep and I doubt you’ll be able to own one, you’ll only be able to lease as it will be no different than having a copy of Windows or any other software.
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V8Granite
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Re: The ICE

Post by V8Granite »

duncs500 wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:48 am
V8Granite wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:12 am I will never own a self driving car.

Dave!
Might get forced into that one day too.
I’m already thinking I won’t be able to enjoy my cars in my twilight years which is quite depressing. I’m unsure how I will use the Merc when it’s finished but for a while it will be long fast trips as much as I can manage. It’s not really a car that shines on a short drive.

I don’t mind it being tricky to find fuel or being banned from town centres but if it costs me a few hundred to drive from my home to Scotland in road charges etc I will have to re-think things.

It all feels like a knee jerk reaction, badly thought out and being run due to it being fashionable.

Hopefully it takes a long time to take noticeable affect.

What I think is absolutely terrible is the fact my kids will very likely be in a position where driving will be tracked in some way even with the phone off. That’s a horrible thing which I think is a kick in the balls to freedom.

Mumble grumble, till then we should all enjoy our freedom and fun as much as possible. Saying just roll with it is very defeatist and lazy imo.

Dave!
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Mito Man
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Re: The ICE

Post by Mito Man »

The government have to be seen doing something otherwise it will be non stop crippling protests and less support at elections, especially as the current youth get to voting age. I’m fully predicting that it will make fuck all difference on a global scale and wild animals will still die everywhere as that’s less of a pollution problem (Antarctica aside) and more of a raping the earth for its space and resources problems.
Will it stop sea levels rising? Will it fuck :roll:

They always bang on about the finiteness of oil and how it will run out in a couple of decades so perhaps it wouldn’t have made all that much of a difference long term. At least it will stop all those shit shows in the Middle East, maybe the West will go back to plundering Africa for rare earth metals instead.

As for the earth dying well we all know that’s a sack of grade A shit. It’s been through worse, it’s been blown up and divided into 2, it’s been nuked by asteroids and been covered in magma. It’ll live on but cretin free.
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mik
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Re: The ICE

Post by mik »

mr_jon
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Re: The ICE

Post by mr_jon »

I think it's a great move, if it's carried through with. I would also recommend a further step of banning the sale of pure petrol/diesel passenger vehicles by, say, 2030, but allowing for 'proper' PHEV's (not the current crop of silly 48v mild hybrids) until 2035 as a stepping-stone.

As for will it solve all of the World's greenhouse problems - no - but it will be a start to cleaning up our own island.
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duncs500
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Re: The ICE

Post by duncs500 »

Mito Man wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:12 pm As for the earth dying well we all know that’s a sack of grade A shit. It’s been through worse, it’s been blown up and divided into 2, it’s been nuked by asteroids and been covered in magma. It’ll live on but cretin free.
The earth dying statements more about the current ecosystem rather than the actual planet going anywhere. ;)
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DeskJockey
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Re: The ICE

Post by DeskJockey »

Beyond stopping the sale of fossil fuel powered vehicles, they should put serious effort into changing how we work and commute. If we can reduce the need to produce vehicles, no matter the power source, then that is even better for the environment.
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duncs500
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Re: The ICE

Post by duncs500 »

DeskJockey wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:40 pm Beyond stopping the sale of fossil fuel powered vehicles, they should put serious effort into changing how we work and commute. If we can reduce the need to produce vehicles, no matter the power source, then that is even better for the environment.
Very true, not just the environment, many people spend a large chunk of their free time commuting.
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DeskJockey
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Re: The ICE

Post by DeskJockey »

duncs500 wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:50 pm
DeskJockey wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:40 pm Beyond stopping the sale of fossil fuel powered vehicles, they should put serious effort into changing how we work and commute. If we can reduce the need to produce vehicles, no matter the power source, then that is even better for the environment.
Very true, not just the environment, many people spend a large chunk of their free time commuting.
Yup. There are very significant potential upsides by giving people back that time.
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Mito Man
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Re: The ICE

Post by Mito Man »

The issue is the rail networks charging £6k for annual ticket on a train which is delayed half the time with not enough seats.
I can’t see public transport working here in any efficient capacity for decades.
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Rich B
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Re: The ICE

Post by Rich B »

Mito Man wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:00 pm The issue is the rail networks charging £6k for annual ticket on a train which is delayed half the time with not enough seats.
I can’t see public transport working here in any efficient capacity for decades.
i think the point is more “do you need to physically be in that place” rather than “how do you get there.” Working remotely is getting more common and more effective as tech improves.
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Gwaredd
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Re: The ICE

Post by Gwaredd »

In hindsight, we need to go back to 1946 and start again. Imagine how awesome our infrastructure would be if we had all our old rail networks running on electric or maglev.
Cheers.

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Mito Man
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Re: The ICE

Post by Mito Man »

Image

Looks like any modern European city :lol:
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ShockDiamonds
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Re: The ICE

Post by ShockDiamonds »

So a few things on this.

1. My next car will be an M5 or something similarly powered, to enjoy whilst I can. I don’t mind trying a hybrid when it’s my choice, and when I can return to petrol if I so see the need, but take petrol away and I’m not just going to swap to EVs. And I won’t vote for it (i.e. support a party that mandates it). And if they suddenly outlaw ICEs from the roads, we’d have riots in the streets.
2. What will the likes of Morgan, Aston, Ferrari, McLaren do in this new EV future? Will people really want an electric McLaren and trade in their V8s? I just don’t see it. A battery powered Aston Vantage? Urgh.
3. What about the thousands of trucks all round the country. Presumably they get a pass? Or we going to see 40 tonners hauling separate trailers for their batteries packs? And has anybody seen the amount of diesel our trains consume?
4. What are other countries doing? The US couldn’t give a fuck and neither could China. So I’ll move to America and take my tax dollars with me.
5. All those people working in filling stations around the country - presumably they’re relying on the likes of Esso to start investing heavily in their own branded charging points and earning revenue that way? Or they simply lose their jobs? And how will refilling stations work anyway? Are we really going to get to the point of being able to 100% charge a car in 5 mins in the next 20 years? Otherwise, it’ll be carnage.
6. Presumably they will close all loop holes preventing you from importing cars?
7. How far has battery recycling progressed in the last 15 years? It’s going to need to come on a bundle in the next 15 to make this even remotely doable.

The whole thing is utter bollocks. As Dave points out, get to 2030 for example, the polls suggest people don’t want it, the infrastructure bods say we’re not ready, the government of the day will cite some study by some obscure body which claims it’s not actually needed and against the threat of losing the next election, it’ll be pushed back 20 years.
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