NotoriousREV wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:59 pm
Any deal is shit by its nature, No Deal is catastrophic economically and politically. There’s only one option that makes any sense.
Sadly applying logic won't work. But yes, second referendum is the only sensible option. Give people a vote on the actual deal on the table.
Option 1: accept the agreement
Option 2: reject the agreement and revoke A50 as a consequence
I'm still not swayed by the second referendum suggestion. I think it'll end up happening, but I don't think it's a good idea. If the outcome is Remain, we will end up with the Leave campaign stepping up a gear and Farage coming back to the fore; basically, the country will become more right-wing. If the outcome is still Leave then I can imagine whoever is then in power taking that as a mandate to get out by any means possible, which would probably be No Deal.
I think we should have a vote every 5 years on whether to leave the EU or if we have already left it a vote on whether to join it. So a Brexit vote and a Brentry vote. It’s so fun it could be just like a general election and just like a general election people keep changing their minds. It’s the only democratic way.
I do wonder if you just told people Brexit was done, if they’d have any idea... Yeah we left, don’t worry about it any more. Then just left it as it currently is.
NotoriousREV wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:59 pm
Any deal is shit by its nature, No Deal is catastrophic economically and politically. There’s only one option that makes any sense.
Sadly applying logic won't work. But yes, second referendum is the only sensible option. Give people a vote on the actual deal on the table.
Option 1: accept the agreement
Option 2: reject the agreement and revoke A50 as a consequence
Back in the real world, the options would be:
Option 1: accept the agreement
Option 2: Stay in limbo for however many more years it takes for someone to win a GE with enough to get a proper majority, then accept the agreement.
Jobbo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:42 pm
I'm still not swayed by the second referendum suggestion. I think it'll end up happening, but I don't think it's a good idea. If the outcome is Remain, we will end up with the Leave campaign stepping up a gear and Farage coming back to the fore; basically, the country will become more right-wing. If the outcome is still Leave then I can imagine whoever is then in power taking that as a mandate to get out by any means possible, which would probably be No Deal.
Not for the first time, Jobbo is correct...
JLv3.0 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:26 pm
I say this rarely Dave, but listen to Dinny because he's right.
Rich B wrote: ↑Thu Jun 02, 2022 1:57 pm
but Dinny was right…
It’s very strange. Everyone is telling BJ that he can get this deal through, though possibly amended, if he just gives it some more time but instead he wants to pause it. Just like the ERG scuppered May’s deal and prevented Brexit in March, now BJ seems to be scuppering his own deal and preventing it again. I don’t get it.
It's not that hard to get. The voting down of the program motion means they've forced him to continue past 31 October and gives them potentially weeks or months to filibuster or table wrecking motions to the bill and to further leverage political advantage in causing the PM to break his promise to leave on the 31st.
There is no "amending" that can be done to the substance of the withdrawal agreement itself via amendments to the implementing bill as the form of the WA is then not what the EU has agreed to. Any material amendments to the bill itself would require the EU to re-open the negotiations. What they could do is put conditionality on the ability of Boris to negotiate a FTA, i.e. that he has to seek a Customs Union or other equivalent bear traps such as a 2nd ref, but that is emphatically not "examination" or amendment of this withdrawal agreement but trying to undermine the government going forward.
I expect his aim is to speak to the EU and say he's willing to have a short technical extension but doesn't want the council to agree to anything longer. That was he can go back to the house and say "you've got 10 days, but not 3 months - failure to get it through in those 10 days means we are back to no deal". If he gives them longer right now, he can't utilise that leverage with the EU and can't use the argument that if they don't give him only a short extension, he'll have to pull it and go to a GE as it won't get through otherwise as it will be amended to death. He will have allies in the council for this approach such as Macron.
Lots of these machinations seem illogical until you realise its all driven by politics.
I agree - but that's more reasons for the EU to give him a short extension as a longer one makes a GE more likely as the remain contingent will try and force him to accept a customs union or a 2nd ref which would be electoral suicide.
It is mind-blowing how the FTPA has really caused havoc with the constitutional workings of the country. Again - well done Oliver Letwin.
He can’t call a general election. We’ve had this discussion before. Missing the 31 October which he promised is his own fault; why not bring last night’s bill earlier?
We don't yet know that he isn't going to come back and offer a revised program motion with more time but after speaking to the EU (this is actually what he's reported to be doing).
There is also a lot of misunderstanding on points of order (if reporters had listened to the explanation of the speaker tonight that would have been helpful) - as Bercow points out, Boris has not paused the legislative process - if you vote down the program motion (i.e. the timetable), the revisions Labour made when they were last in government mean a bill cannot progress to committee stage for review until further action is taken (i.e. re-tabling a revised program motion).
Saying he should "be a statesman" is not really understanding the fact that he has to try and get the bill through and just saying, ok fine, have 6 weeks to debate it will not further that end one iota, so the inverse of your statement is as true as the way you put it. A canny middle ground is probably the most likely to succeed but he has to line the EU up first to not give a three month extension first otherwise the HoC will think they have no time pressure and keep voting program motions down until he gives them a very long period.
Plus of course, he could not actually give longer than the 31st without asking the EU for an extension first and he would then be doing so having not had a vote on the merits of the WA itself, so Catch 22. The more you think about this, the more its obvious it is why it played out the way it did.
So it looks like we’ll be getting a GE. Donald Tusk has said he is recommending the extension to 31st Jan and is preparing the paperwork. Downing Street has said tonight that if the extension is granted, they ask for a GE. Labour have said they’ll go for a GE once the extension is sorted.
That isn’t a fucking answer.
