No Longer the New New Thing

SSO
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No Longer the New New Thing

Post by SSO »

Just posted a new blog on No Longer the New New Thing:

https://karenable.com/no-longer-the-new-new-thing/

Comments?
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Rich B
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Re: No Longer the New New Thing

Post by Rich B »

Isn’t that pretty much the normal curve for most proper supercars - Appreciate with all the buzz of newness and waiting lists, then fall when the next big thing is announced and they are forgotten (and the reality of maintenance after warranty kicks in), then eventually settle and appreciate when everyone gets nostalgic and the collectors are looking for new classics to fill their polished garages.

The length of time it takes on the graph varies and there’ll always be a few stand outs like the F1.
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Re: No Longer the New New Thing

Post by SSO »

Rich B wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:13 pm Isn’t that pretty much the normal curve for most proper supercars - Appreciate with all the buzz of newness and waiting lists, then fall when the next big thing is announced and they are forgotten (and the reality of maintenance after warranty kicks in), then eventually settle and appreciate when everyone gets nostalgic and the collectors are looking for new classics to fill their polished garages.

The length of time it takes on the graph varies and there’ll always be a few stand outs like the F1.
I think one area that is very different this time is the huge run up in values and the sharpe sudden drop back down. Also the battery issues all the hybrids have is new territory. There is a reason the Senna is not a hybrid and I believe the P1 successor also will not be.
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mik
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Re: No Longer the New New Thing

Post by mik »

What battery issues are they all having?
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GG.
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Re: No Longer the New New Thing

Post by GG. »

I think he had previously posted on this. I believe on the P1 if, for whatever reason, you let the battery drain to zero (i.e. your trickle chargers dies or power trips off whilst you're away), you have to replace the whole battery pack :lol:

Here you go:

The downsides to this are the extra 155 Lbs of batteries mounted directly behind the back wall of the passenger cabin and the fact that the P1 needs to be kept on a massive battery conditioner whenever it is garaged. If the batteries go dead, McLaren will happy replace them for a figure north of $70k. I know of several cases where this has happened. It’s the massive iron battery conditioner which is the weak link in this whole system though. If you have a power outage, you need to manual restart the battery conditioner when power is restored. For most owners this is probably not a major issue or concern. In my case it became a major risk factor as I travel extensively, in many instances for multiple weeks at a time, and live in an area that seems to get hit by power outages at least once every few weeks. Hence every vacation and long business trip came with a potential extra $70k surcharge.
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Re: No Longer the New New Thing

Post by Rich B »

Battery packs, wheels needing replacing with tyres, fuel tanks... super cars all have their legendary big bills.
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Re: No Longer the New New Thing

Post by SSO »

Rich B wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:16 pm Battery packs, wheels needing replacing with tyres, fuel tanks... super cars all have their legendary big bills.
True but the battery packs on the P1 and LaFerrari are a whole new category. Fuel cells on a F40 and F50 are GBP 10k. Battery pack is 10x that today.
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Re: No Longer the New New Thing

Post by Rich B »

What and when was the lowest price F40s got to?
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Re: No Longer the New New Thing

Post by GG. »

Scheduled stuff like changing fuel tank bags on an F40 not quite the same as a $70 bill for accidentally draining the battery though! Which car was it that needed its wheels replacing with the tyres?

You can obviously argue that owners of supercars can afford it but at the end of the day, an actual owner of a P1 has gone on the record to state that it was too big a risk for him and was part of the reason in moving it on.

ETA: SSO beat me to it.
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Re: No Longer the New New Thing

Post by Rich B »

Veyron. I’m not arguing or trying to win GG - this isn’t a court. I’m discussing it - SSO asked for comments and I expect is liking that it is being discussed!
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Re: No Longer the New New Thing

Post by drcarlos »

GG. wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:47 pm I think he had previously posted on this. I believe on the P1 if, for whatever reason, you let the battery drain to zero (i.e. your trickle chargers dies or power trips off whilst you're away), you have to replace the whole battery pack :lol:

Here you go:

The downsides to this are the extra 155 Lbs of batteries mounted directly behind the back wall of the passenger cabin and the fact that the P1 needs to be kept on a massive battery conditioner whenever it is garaged. If the batteries go dead, McLaren will happy replace them for a figure north of $70k. I know of several cases where this has happened. It’s the massive iron battery conditioner which is the weak link in this whole system though. If you have a power outage, you need to manual restart the battery conditioner when power is restored. For most owners this is probably not a major issue or concern. In my case it became a major risk factor as I travel extensively, in many instances for multiple weeks at a time, and live in an area that seems to get hit by power outages at least once every few weeks. Hence every vacation and long business trip came with a potential extra $70k surcharge.
That seems totally ridiculous as Mclaren could have built in battery sensing technology that would disconnect the batteries from the car in the event of a low voltage situation and totally removed this as a potential issue.

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Re: No Longer the New New Thing

Post by GG. »

To move back on to the more general question of the values for these things in the market - I think there is a lot of investment bubble going on in this recently (i.e. last 5 years) too. The 911R isn't a supercar but has still followed that same trajectory of initial peak post launch and then crash back to lower levels. That obviously has nothing to do with running costs.
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Re: No Longer the New New Thing

Post by DaveE »

The downsides to this are the extra 155 Lbs of batteries mounted directly behind the back wall of the passenger cabin and the fact that the P1 needs to be kept on a massive battery conditioner whenever it is garaged. If the batteries go dead, McLaren will happy replace them for a figure north of $70k. I know of several cases where this has happened. It’s the massive iron battery conditioner which is the weak link in this whole system though. If you have a power outage, you need to manual restart the battery conditioner when power is restored. For most owners this is probably not a major issue or concern. In my case it became a major risk factor as I travel extensively, in many instances for multiple weeks at a time, and live in an area that seems to get hit by power outages at least once every few weeks. Hence every vacation and long business trip came with a potential extra $70k surcharge.
Then buying one was a bad decision.

In the same way that if you're away for weeks at a time and no one else is at home, a pet would be a bad thing to buy.
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Re: No Longer the New New Thing

Post by IanF »

GG. wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:40 pm To move back on to the more general question of the values for these things in the market - I think there is a lot of investment bubble going on in this recently (i.e. last 5 years) too. The 911R isn't a supercar but has still followed that same trajectory of initial peak post launch and then crash back to lower levels. That obviously has nothing to do with running costs.
911R - ‘16-‘17: 400k, 17-18: 250-350k, 19- : 215-240k

Probably can see when the Touring was announced. One going for sale this month at Scène with a £240-280k estimate.
Cheers,

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mik
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Re: No Longer the New New Thing

Post by mik »

DaveE wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:59 pm
The downsides to this are the extra 155 Lbs of batteries mounted directly behind the back wall of the passenger cabin and the fact that the P1 needs to be kept on a massive battery conditioner whenever it is garaged. If the batteries go dead, McLaren will happy replace them for a figure north of $70k. I know of several cases where this has happened. It’s the massive iron battery conditioner which is the weak link in this whole system though. If you have a power outage, you need to manual restart the battery conditioner when power is restored. For most owners this is probably not a major issue or concern. In my case it became a major risk factor as I travel extensively, in many instances for multiple weeks at a time, and live in an area that seems to get hit by power outages at least once every few weeks. Hence every vacation and long business trip came with a potential extra $70k surcharge.
Then buying one was a bad decision.

In the same way that if you're away for weeks at a time and no one else is at home, a pet would be a bad thing to buy.
You just need the battery-conditioner-restart version of this.

Image
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Re: No Longer the New New Thing

Post by GG. »

Vent radioactive gasses... :lol:
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Re: No Longer the New New Thing

Post by SSO »

Rich B wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:24 pm Veyron. I’m not arguing or trying to win GG - this isn’t a court. I’m discussing it - SSO asked for comments and I expect is liking that it is being discussed!
Discussion is great :D
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Re: No Longer the New New Thing

Post by JonMad »

£700k F1 - oof!

Excellent, interesting analysis.
SSO wrote:Enzo, LaFerrari, P1 and 918 will continue to slide south in value to a bit below the original list prices before starting to trend back up as they age from latest thing to collectable classic.
You fancying one, two or all three of these then at some point? Can't recall if you'd had any of these already.
Left over crest; tightens.
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Re: No Longer the New New Thing

Post by Pete_ »

IanF wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:06 pm
GG. wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:40 pm To move back on to the more general question of the values for these things in the market - I think there is a lot of investment bubble going on in this recently (i.e. last 5 years) too. The 911R isn't a supercar but has still followed that same trajectory of initial peak post launch and then crash back to lower levels. That obviously has nothing to do with running costs.
911R - ‘16-‘17: 400k, 17-18: 250-350k, 19- : 215-240k

Probably can see when the Touring was announced. One going for sale this month at Scène with a £240-280k estimate.
Were they not being abvertised at 700k+ at one point? Obviously whether they actually sold at that price is a different question, and I don't know the answer.
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Re: No Longer the New New Thing

Post by Richard »

Rich B wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:24 pm Veyron
As I remember, every second set of tyres on a Veyron needed a set of wheels as well

I remember Harry Metcalfe did the MM in a Veyron on YouTube several years back. He had a guy from Bugatti in the car for some/all of it. Apparently Bugatti don’t pitch their cars to millionaires, but instead billionaires - at least that’s what they said.

I guess to billionaires new wheels every couple of years isn’t an issue
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