EU elections

[GG.]

That's what's being strongly suggested. The tories have been burnt once by putting in a managerialist authoritarian with the personal charisma of an office chair. Whatever you think about Boris he's the diametric opposite of all those things.

[Jobbo]

Jobbo, I imagine it’s “squeaked” as Labour only got 680ish more votes than Brexit party, and nothing to do with the percentages involved, but I’m not reading the Daily Mail to find out.

The Conservatives did better than I’d’ve thought possible. I think the Brexit party will end up as UKIP mark ii, ie nowhere.

683 votes - but a difference of 2% of the electorate. It's the usual Daily Mail spin but I hadn't realised they were so pro-Farage.

2% of votes cast rather than eligible voters/electorate I would think.

If you don't vote, you can't have a say. There wasn't 100% turnout in the 2016 referendum.

[GG.]

I was just pointing out your statistic is incorrect. Its around 1% of electorate / 2% of votes cast.

Potentially makes a difference as an increase in voter turnout doesn't always split the same way as those who have voted (not saying that would favour Farage by the way, just that it was a tighter margin than 2% of electorate would suggest). I presume that turnout yesterday was lower than a GE but would have to double check.

ETA: turnout was 48.4%, down from 67.5% in the 2017 general election. Coin toss as to whether the result would be different if it was a GE with 20% higher turnout and not a by election.