Brexit: the trade negotiations

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Orange Cola
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Brexit: the trade negotiations

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Given the Tory majority and Boris’ deal is already agreed with the EU it feels like the motion to leave is now just a formality. Boris has promised a return to the house on Friday to vote again so we have the deal agreed by MP’s in the next seven day’s; the end of January 2020 date looks credible.

This takes us into the next major phase which is negotiating trade deals. Some are already complete but nothing with substantial amounts of economical significance. Boris has said trade deal talks will be under way within weeks of the end of January, I’m betting we’ll need to delay the December 2020 date for going it alone.

Do the hardcore brexiteers think a delay is needed or just don’t care given we’re now a long way in the road to being out?
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GG.
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Re: Brexit: the trade negotiations

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Most likely we'll need to delay/extend transition. The larger majority gives Boris the flexibility to say later in the year that December 2020 isn't now achievable + we'll need to extend - the ERG headbangers will get overruled.

It all very much depends on how much alignment we opt for. If its a very close alignment with significant elements of equivalence to EU rules (political declaration does imply this is an aim) then a swifter deal is possible but the closer you get to that kind of deal the more it looks like 'BRINO' but with no seat at the table. I think what Boris will push for - i.e. a greater degree of possible divergence - won't be achievable by 31.12.20.
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Jobbo
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Re: Brexit: the trade negotiations

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What trade deals are already complete? I wasn’t aware we even had any of our own negotiations yet, let alone completed deals.
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GG.
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Re: Brexit: the trade negotiations

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Not big ones but quite a few:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc. ... k-47213842

Essentially just rolling over what we have now once Brexit happens so not ‘new’ per se.
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Broccers
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Re: Brexit: the trade negotiations

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Jobbo wrote: Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:06 pm What trade deals are already complete? I wasn’t aware we even had any of our own negotiations yet, let alone completed deals.
None are complete as you know.
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Orange Cola
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Re: Brexit: the trade negotiations

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As GG posted there appears to have been a number of ‘low hanging fruit’ deals agreed but nothing which will prop up the country.

Interesting that the media are in firm belief Boris will now go for as soft a Brexit as possible. I know it’s yet to happen but all the pointers are there.
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Jobbo
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Re: Brexit: the trade negotiations

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Broccers wrote: Sat Dec 14, 2019 8:32 pm
Jobbo wrote: Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:06 pm What trade deals are already complete? I wasn’t aware we even had any of our own negotiations yet, let alone completed deals.
None are complete as you know.
That is indeed why I asked the question. I don’t think Tango was trying to say we were more advanced than we are.
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Re: Brexit: the trade negotiations

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Orange Cola wrote: Sun Dec 15, 2019 4:51 amInteresting that the media are in firm belief Boris will now go for as soft a Brexit as possible. I know it’s yet to happen but all the pointers are there.
It is interesting how this has come up so quickly. Just because Boris has a sufficiently large majority he doesn’t need ERG support to get things through Parliament- but they’re pretty vociferous and powerful. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Broccers and GG, do you think a soft Brexit is likely now? And would it keep you happy? Genuine question.
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Orange Cola
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Re: Brexit: the trade negotiations

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I don’t know the intricate details of how the rest of the Tories feel and vote on Brexit policies compared to the ERG but the media are suggesting there’s enough Tories wanting a soft(er) Brexit that they can comfortably outweigh the ERG.

I guess with no other hardline Brexit party having any seats the ERG can’t look to outside help?

It’ll be interesting to see how Boris plays it and if he does go for a soft Brexit will he get labour and SNP MP’s on board by playing a hard Brexit offering at each step knowing labour and SNP will never go for it?
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